Cop21, cosa è stato deciso nella conferenza sul clima di Parigi

di Michele Costanzo 68

Cop21-Parigi
Erano molte le attese attorno alla Cop21, la XXI Conferenza delle Parti sul cambiamento climatico ospitata a Parigi. Un vertice tra i rappresentati delle nazioni del mondo chiamati a decidere una politica comune e coordinata per limitare gli effetti negativi del cambiamento climatico e del riscaldamento globale. In questo quadro complesso il summit di Parigi si è lungamente avvolto in una trattativa tra interessi contrapposti fino a produrre un accordo condiviso che apre nuovi scenari per le politiche ambientali.

La difficile trattativa alla Cop21

Inaugurata il 30 novembre, la Cop21 di Parigi si sarebbe dovuta concludere entro l’11 dicembre dopo dodici giorni di lavori. Nel susseguirsi dei vari giorni del vertice più volte un accordo globale è stato dato per imminente per poi essere rimesso in discussione a poche ore di distanza. In realtà molte delle questioni sul tavolo hanno registrato posizioni differenti e difficilmente conciliabili rendono sempre più complessa la stesura di un testo condiviso. Nelle premesse alla Cop21 era stato chiaramente indicato l’obiettivo di limitare a 2 gradi centigradi l’aumento della temperatura media rispetto ai livelli pre-industriali. Nella conferenza tuttavia alcuni paesi maggiormente esposti agli effetti del cambiamento climatico hanno proposto di abbassare questa soglia ad 1,5 gradi generando la contrarietà delle economie che da questa limitazione avrebbero tratto i maggiori svantaggi.

Molto divisivo si è dimostrato anche il tema della responsabilità storica. Se infatti è generalmente accettato che le economie più industrializzate hanno storicamente contribuito in maniera rilevante alle emissioni in atmosfera, è altrettanto vero che alcune delle più grandi economie emergenti (Cina ed India anzitutto) sono oggi tra i maggiori produttori di gas serra. Ne sono derivati due fronti contrapposti tra chi chiedeva ai paesi industrializzati uno sforzo maggiore come conseguenza delle rispettive responsabilità storiche e chi invece proponeva impegni più uniformi tra tutti i paesi presenti alla Cop21.

Inevitabile infine il confronto sugli aspetti economici dell’accordo sui cambiamenti climatici. Con diverse decine di miliardi di dollari in ballo gran parte del dibattito si è accentrato proprio sulla modalità di ripartizione delle risorse in special modo per quanto riguarda il contributo dei paesi industrializzati a sostegno dei paesi in via di sviluppo che adotteranno misure per la riduzione delle emissioni di gas serra.

Gli impegni emersi della Cop21

Venerdì 11 dicembre era la data teoricamente fissata per chiudere la Cop21 di Parigi. L’accordo tra i paesi presenti alla conferenza tuttavia è rimasto in sospeso per tutto il giorno e solo in serata si è diffusa la notizia di un ulteriore prolungamento dei lavori per arrivare ad un testo condiviso. Una bozza finale dell’accordo viene resa nota solo nella mattinata di sabato 12 a seguito di una lunga trattativa ad oltranza portata avanti nella notte. Il documento (qui il testo finale) viene infine approvato dall’assemblea nella serata ed è da più parti definito come un passaggio storico. Il testo che ne emerge è una mediazione tra le varie istanze arrivate alla conferenza sul clima, un compromesso necessario per dare una validità estesa all’accordo. Vediamo quindi quali sono i cardini dell’intesa raggiunta a Parigi:

  • Variazioni della temperatura: All’articolo 2 del trattato i partecipanti alla Cop21 si impegnano a contenere l’incremento della temperatura media al di sotto dei 2 gradi rispetto all’era pre-industriale con un ulteriore impegno a fare quanto possibile per limitare l’incremento a 1,5 gradi.
  • Cronoprogramma: I paesi che sottoscrivono l’accordo di Parigi si impegnano a comunicare periodicamente i progressi raggiunti. Una prima verifica globale dei risultati è programmata per il 2023 mentre quelle successive avverranno a cadenza quinquennale.
  • Compensazioni: in base all’accordo della XXI Conferenza delle Parti sul cambiamento climatico di Parigi, i paesi sviluppato si impegno nei prossimi anni a rendere disponibili nuovi fondi a sostegno dei paesi in via di sviluppo impegnati nella lotta al cambiamento climatico. L’obiettivo è quello di creare un fondo da 100 miliardi di dollari all’anno.
  • Lotta agli effetti dei cambiamenti climatici: L’articolo 8 del documento sottoscritto alla Cop21 definisce l’impegno comune a contrastare gli effetti del cambiamento climatico in modo da limitare i danni alle persone ed al territorio. In questo senso l’invito a sostenere lo sviluppo di sistemi di allerta, di pianificazione degli interventi e di valutazione del rischio.

Guardando oltre gli accordi di Parigi

L’accordo raggiunto a Parigi si pone come pietra miliare nella lotta ai cambiamenti climatici. Per la prima volta infatti una parte degli impegni inseriti nel documento finale sarà vincolate per per i paesi aderenti. L’altro indubbio successo del summit parigino è l’aver attivamente coinvolto paesi come Stati Uniti e Cina risultati decisivi anche sul fronte diplomatico.

È comunque chiaro che il documento approvato con entusiasmo alla Cop21 è solo il primo passo di un percorso ancora molto complesso. Prima di generare effetti concreti l’accordo andrà infatti ratificato dai singoli paesi e dalle organizzazioni sovranazionali presenti alla conferenza. In tal senso è previsto che l’adesione al trattato possa avvenire presso la sede delle Nazioni Unite dal 22 aprile 2016 al 21 aprile 2017.

Gli ambiziosi obiettivi fissati dall’accordo di Parigi potranno essere raggiunti solo attraverso l’adozione di un nuovo modello di sostenibilità energetica. L’obiettivo di limitare l’incremento della temperatura media del pianeta passa inevitabilmente attraverso un progressivo azzeramento delle emissioni di gas serra. Cittadini, imprese ed intere nazioni sono chiamati a muoversi verso un modello energetico nuovo e sempre più strettamente legato alla produzione di energia da fonti rinnovabili. Ma un contributo importate per centrare gli obiettivi fissati dalla Cop21 potrà arrivare anche dalla tutela delle foreste che da sempre operano una azione equilibratrice della concentrazione di CO2 in atmosfera.

Da Parigi parte un percorso nuovo che chiama tutti all’assunzione di nuove responsabilità. Come è emerso chiaramente alla vigilia della conferenza sui cambiamenti climatici, questa potrebbe essere l’ultima occasione preventiva prima che le conseguenza del riscaldamento globale diventino ingovernabili. Nella speranza che non si ripeta il complesso di veti ed interessi contrapposti che hanno reso vani molti degli impegni del protocollo di Kyoto.

Photo Credits | cop21.gouv.fr

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