L’Onu ha da qualche anno avviato un progetto, denominato Ipcc Project, per rilevare la situazione dei cambiamenti climatici, monitorarla in tempo reale, e predire cosa potrebbe accadere in caso di disastro naturale. La task force, dopo diversi anni di studi, ha concluso che la situazione è molto preoccupante, ma siamo ancora in grado di arginarla. Anche l’Ipcc è d’accordo sulla soglia dei due gradi di riscaldamento delle temperature medie globali, il che significa che il mondo deve assolutamente frenare o, meglio ancora, diminuire le sue emissioni.
Se queste continueranno ad aumentare, non si potrà tornare indietro, e la Terra rischierebbe una vera e propria rivoluzione. La prima e più diretta conseguenza sarà il famoso scioglimento dei ghiacciai, il quale porterebbe, entro il 2050, ad un innalzamento di mezzo metro delle acque. Cosa significa? Può sembrar poco, ma città intere come New York, Miami, Shangai o Calcutta verrebbero letteralmente spazzate via.
In tutto le città portuali che si calcola avranno danni ingenti saranno 136, con un totale di 25 mila miliardi di dollari di danno. A questo poi si aggiungerà la siccità fuori controllo, che seccherà interi continenti, come quello africano già messo a dura prova, ma anche nazioni avanzate, come la California che, con tutta la tecnologia disponibile, verrà flagellata dalla mancanza d’acqua dolce. I danni per gli incendi, di cui lo Stato californiano già soffre, andranno ad aumentare sempre di più, arrivando a toccare i 2,5 miliardi di dollari l’anno entro il 2050 e i 14 miliardi nel 2085.
I monsoni, che oggi alimentano gran parte dell’Asia Sudorientale, come India e Nepal, si sposteranno, diminuiranno o addirittura si bloccheranno, lasciando due terzi della popolazione a secco, e dunque a rischio sopravvivenza.
La foresta amazzonica, già oggi “violentata”, sarà diminuita del 70% entro la fine del secolo, con una perdita di biodiversità incalcolabile e farà subire una perdita enorme all’economia brasiliana che oggi si basa principalmente sulle foreste e sull’acqua, che si prevede andranno persi. Ed infine, come già sta accadendo da ora, gli uragani, che gli Stati Uniti conoscono bene, aumenteranno sempre più di intensità, fino a far sembrare l’uragano Katrina solo un piccolo venticello. Insomma, la Terra sarebbe messa a dura prova, sempre che non facciamo qualcosa ora che siamo in tempo.
Fonte: [Repubblica]
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