Negoziati sul clima, gli obiettivi non sono sicuri

L’analisi delle registrazioni geologiche che conteggiano i dettagli dell’ultimo periodo conosciuto del riscaldamento globale, hanno rivelato sorprendenti risultati, i quali suggeriscono che gli attuali obiettivi per limitare il cambiamento climatico, stabiliti durante gli ultimi negoziati sul clima, non sono sicuri. Lo studio è stato effettuato dagli esperti sul cambiamento climatico dell’Università di Exeter ed avranno importanti implicazioni per i negoziatori internazionali che dovranno concordare gli obiettivi vincolanti per gli obiettivi futuri delle emissioni di gas serra.

Il professor Chris Turney e il dottor Richard Jones, entrambi del Dipartimento di Geografia, hanno riportato uno studio completo dell’ultimo periodo interglaciale, un periodo di riscaldamento di circa 125.000 anni fa, nell’ultimo numero del Journal of Quaternary Science. I risultati rivelano che l’obiettivo dell’Unione europea di limitare l’aumento della temperatura globale a meno di 2° C rispetto ai livelli pre-industriali non dovrebbe essere considerato “sicuro”.

Dalla loro analisi, gli scienziati hanno trovato 263 stime delle condizioni in cui i sedimenti e il ghiaccio si sono trovati nel corso degli ultimi periodi interglaciali, consentendo loro di ricostruire le temperature passate di tutto il mondo. Per confrontare le stime ricostruite con i dati di oggi, hanno preso i valori dell’ultimo interglaciale e li hanno confrontati con le temperature moderne medie per il periodo 1961-1990.

I risultati mostrano temperature che sembrano essere state più di 5˚ C più calde nelle regioni polari, mentre i tropici erano solo marginalmente riscaldati in modo sorprendentemente simile alle tendenze recenti. Non solo, ma nel suo insieme, il mondo sembra essere stato circa 1,9˚ C più caldo rispetto alle temperature preindustriali. Le temperature più calde sembrano aver portato il livello globale del mare di 6,6-9,4 metri più alto rispetto ad oggi, con un tasso di crescita tra i 60 e i 90 centimetri per decennio, più del doppio rispetto alle osservazioni recenti.

Le temperature superiori viste durante l’ultima interglaciale sono paragonabili alle proiezioni per la fine di questo secolo, secondo quanto calcolato degli scenari delle emissioni nella quarta valutazione del Gruppo intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici (IPCC). Il professore Turney ha dichiarato:

I risultati qui sono abbastanza sorprendenti e, soprattutto, suggeriscono che il livello dei mari salirà significativamente più del previsto e che stabilizzare la temperatura media globale a 2˚ C rispetto ai livelli pre-industriali non può essere considerato un obiettivo “sicuro”, come previsto dall’Unione Europea e da altri. La conclusione è inevitabile: gli obiettivi sulle emissioni dovranno essere ulteriormente ridotti.

Fonte: [Sciencedaily]

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